Education/Analytics
The 2016 NCAA Recruiting Class: A Look Back
Posted on February 24, 2017
Division 1 Edition As the college hockey season heads into the last weekend before playoffs, we thought it would be a great time to release our 2016 Recruiting Class Analysis. This is used by our scouting staff internally to grade our performance and make improvements for the following season. We study the areas we were…
Top 600 NCAA Eligible Prospects Born in 1997
Posted on December 14, 2016
Neutral Zone is pleased to announce our Top 600 list for 1997 born NCAA Eligible prospects throughout North America. Each player on this list has been evaluated by regional scouts in their area and also cross referenced by other scouts on staff as well as the Director of Scouting. The players are evaluated from August-December and given a star rating. The Top 600 players are selected from a pool of over 1,000 NCAA prospects in a grueling process and evaluated against one another to come up with a 1-600 list. The star ratings are more indicative of future success than the difference between #205 and #250, but the rankings are used in the calculus of the NCAA Recruiting Class Rankings.
As part of our mission statement to use analytics to educate coaches, scouts, players and parents we have broken down our Top 600 rankings and provided viewers with several interesting statistics.
League Breakdown
| League | # of Players | % |
| NAHL | 139 | 23.2% |
| USHL | 129 | 21.5% |
| BCHL | 104 | 17.3% |
| AJHL | 63 | 10.5% |
| OJHL | 46 | 7.6% |
| CCHL | 29 | 4.8% |
| USPHL | 29 | 4.8% |
| SJHL | 21 | 3.5% |
| MJHL | 14 | 2.3% |
| GOJHL | 11 | 1.8% |
| Other | 6 | 1.0% |
| NE Prep | 5 | 0.8% |
| EHL | 4 | 0.6% |
The purpose of showing the league breakdown is not to rank the strengh of the leagues, rather to show where these 600 players are coming from. With that being said we see that the double digit percentages are in the four top junior leagues in North America. Keep in mind that some leagues above only have 12 teams in them while other leagues have over 20 so it is not fair to say for example that the OJHL is a better league than the CCHL because it has 17 more players on the list because it has nearly double the amount of teams.
Position Breakdown
| Position | # of Players | % |
| Forwards | 369 | 61.5% |
| Defense | 180 | 30.0% |
| Goalies | 51 | 8.5% |
Here we breakdown the 600 players on the list by position. Our list is consistent with the 60/30/10 percentage breakdown between forwards, defense and goaltenders on most NCAA teams.
Commitments
| Status | # of Players | % |
| D1 Committed | 177 | 29.5% |
| Uncommitted | 423 | 70.5% |
In look at the 1997 list we see that nearly 1/3 of the players are already committed to D1 programs. Some of these players have signed their letter of intent and are expected to matriculate next fall, others will play another year of junior hockey.
Top 600 Star Ratings
| Rating | # of Players | % |
| 4.75 | 1 | 0.2% |
| 4.5 | 4 | 0.7% |
| 4.25 | 6 | 1.0% |
| 4 | 18 | 3.0% |
| 3.75 | 87 | 14.5% |
| 3.5 | 143 | 23.8% |
| 3.25 | 111 | 18.5% |
| 3 | 123 | 20.5% |
| 2.75 | 107 | 17.8% |
The Top 600 ranges in star ratings from 4.75-2.75. This chart looks at all 600 prospects and what star rating they have. The first thing that jumps out is how 4.0-4.75 star players only make up 5% of the total list. Then the list goes up to 14.5% for 3.75 star prospects and up again to 23.8% for 3.5 star prospects. The reason there are so few 4.0 stars is the mainly the age factor. Top prospects are typically playing college hockey at 18 or 19 so there are not a ton of 4 stars left in junior hockey at the older ages. Keep in mind Connor McDavid is a 1997 birth year…
NZ Historical Star Rating Breakdown
| Rating | D1 % | D3 % | CIS/Other % |
| 5.0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.75 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.5 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.25 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.0 | 98.8 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 3.75 | 97.7 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3.5 | 95.5 | 0.4 | 4.1 |
| 3.25 | 13.3 | 74.4 | 12.3 |
| 3.0 | 4.5 | 85.6 | 9.9 |
| 2.75 | 0 | 96.7 | 3.3 |
| 2.5 | 0 | 97.4 | 2.6 |
| 2.25 | 0 | 91.2 | 8.8 |
| 2.0 | 0 | 67.8 | 22.2 |
This chart tracks the 2015-2016 Star Rating’s for 1998-1995’s. As you can see 3.5 star prospects and above have over 97% chance of playing D1 college hockey. This chart is made to give context to the star ratings in the Top 600. There are reasons for CIS/Other as some players we ranked last year had played CHL and were not NCAA eligible. We have now taken them out of the National Rankings to reduce that number. Also, with the US/CAN dollar exchange rate some of the Canadian prospects will not be able to afford D3 institutions. In the US, particularly in the midwest, some players simply stop playing or go the club route if they are not offered at a Division 1 school.
Top 600 NCAA Eligible 1997 Born Prospects in North America
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Commit | Star |
| 1 | Nick Swaney | Waterloo (USHL) | F | Minnesota Duluth | 4.75 |
| 2 | Jordan Kawaguchi | Chilliwack (BCHL) | F | North Dakota | 4.5 |
| 3 | Christian Evers | Lincoln (USHL) | D | North Dakota | 4.5 |
| 4 | Blake Lizotte | Fargo (USHL) | F | St. Cloud | 4.5 |
| 5 | Philip Nyberg | Madison (USHL) | D | UConn | 4.5 |
NZ Analytics: USHL 23-man Roster Breakdown
Posted on October 4, 2016
When the USHL released its official 23-man rosters on September 21st they noted that 295 players had D1 NCAA commitments and 13 were drafted in the NAHL. Given that the USHL is the top junior league in the United States and the largest feeder league to NCAA Division 1 college hockey; we felt it…
The College Hockey Landscape: A Study of the 21-year-old Freshman
Posted on June 25, 2016
The Big 10 this past year found themselves in a contentious debate when they attempted to bring the maximum age of freshman in hockey to 20. The implications were major and after much discussion and debate they decided to withdraw their pledge and give it more time and consideration. We see both sides of…
Against the Grain: Inside Mittelstadt’s decision to return to Eden Prairie
Posted on June 3, 2016
More than at any other point in history, the hockey landscape facing today’s generation of amateur players is defined by an ultra-competitive, accelerated, and stop-at-nothing culture where players and families are making incredible – and often senseless – sacrifices all for the “chance” at an NCAA scholarship or CHL contract. In today’s game, players…
USHL Phase I Draft Grades
Posted on May 4, 2016
The Phase I USHL Draft took place Monday night and provided a setting for the top 160 prospects born in 2000 from around the United States (and beyond) to be selected by the team that values them the most. This draft is also refereed to as the Futures Draft as these players will be placed on…
Making the Grade: An exclusive look inside USA Hockey’s National Team Development Program
Posted on April 17, 2016
By Neutral Zone staff with support from Ryan Hardy, NTDP Director of Player Personnel Neutral Zone staff recently attended USA Hockey’s National Team Development Program Evalutation Camp held in Plymouth, Michigan, and along with getting to see how roughly the top 50 ‘2000 birth year players in the U.S. – with a few exceptions – stacked up…
